Showing posts with label Afghanistan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Afghanistan. Show all posts

Monday, June 7, 2021

Correct change in Afghan policy

(jtndikhan especial report)

Prime Minister Imran Khan's announcement that his government has changed its policy of strategic depth in Afghanistan is undoubtedly a fulfillment of an unavoidable need of the times. He rightly called for political reconciliation before the withdrawal of US troops, pointing to the fact that if a civil war broke out in a neighboring country, Pakistan would be the second most affected after Afghanistan. His analysis seems to be correct in the context of the recent past.


The neighbor that has been most affected by Afghanistan's four decades of external aggression is certainly Pakistan. The main reason for this is that the two brotherly Muslim countries are interconnected in terms of geography, history, beliefs, language and civilization. That is why after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, when the flood of refugees turned to Pakistan, they were greeted with fraternal generosity. Pakistan openly supported the Afghan resistance against the Soviet military intervention and called on jihads organizations. Keep in touch. After the military withdrawal of the Soviet Union, the power struggle between the jihads organizations started.


When the Pakistani institutions sided with the organizations of their choice instead of neutrality, anti-Pakistan sentiments arose in other groups. When the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ended its confrontation with jihadi groups and formed its own government, Pakistan cooperated fully with it, as a result of which Afghanistan and Pakistan became practically one and the same. Our state institutions called this situation a strategic depth for Pakistan, but Pakistan's distance from anti-Taliban Afghan groups continued to grow.


After 9/11, when the nuclear situation changed dramatically, the negative effects of this tactical depth strategy became apparent and Pakistan faced the worst of terrorism. Anti-Taliban governments were formed in Kabul and they were generally concerned about Pakistan. However, as a result of the Taliban's fierce resistance to external aggression, when the need for peace talks between the United States and the Taliban was felt, it was necessary to bring the Taliban from Pakistan to the negotiating table.


The desire to use its influence was expressed and Pakistan did its utmost for the sake of peace and stability in the region. Negotiations were successful and the withdrawal of US troops began, set for September 11 this year, but before that there was a consensus between the Taliban and groups in the current Afghan government on the future political system of Afghanistan. The process was to be finalized, but no significant progress has been made so far, raising fears of another civil war in Afghanistan. In his latest remarks, Prime Minister Imran Khan pointed out the same threat and announced that Pakistan had abandoned its years-old strategic depth strategy and decided to remain neutral among Afghan groups, believing that it belonged to the Afghan people.


They have the right to form their own government in their own country. The Prime Minister has vowed to make every effort to reach an inter-Afghan reconciliation before the US withdrawal. In fact, this is the time needed and the United States, Pakistan and all other relevant powers must ensure it, otherwise the entire region will become the target of the worst civil war and instability.




Monday, May 17, 2021

A new era of Afghan peace talks

(Written by, Abu Raja Haider)

The international community and U.S. military officials last month expressed concern about the escalation of violence in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of foreign troops and the resumption of ISIS activity, which has seen an increase in violence over the past two weeks The United Nations is concerned and sees its long-term peace efforts in vain. In this situation, there are reports of a new round of talks between the Afghan government and representatives of the Taliban leadership in Doha, Qatar, which the parties have confirmed.

According to a spokesman for the Afghan government, talks with the Taliban leadership on Friday to speed up the stalled peace talks were held, while a Taliban spokesman said they had agreed to continue talks with the Afghan government after Eid al-Fitr. In a highly sensitive situation were bombings, suicide attacks and violent activities have intensified again in different parts of Afghanistan, this promise of dialogue has emerged as a ray of hope that will bring a new, peaceful, and golden opportunity to tarnish a prosperous Afghanistan has come.

The Afghan political leadership must take full advantage of this, given the 40 years of foreign military domination and the wider interests of the people trapped in the civil war. In a telephone conversation with his Afghan counterpart Muhammad Hanif Atmar on Friday, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi described the inter-Afghan talks as a "rare opportunity" to end the 40-year-old civil war. There is no scope for any kind of tension or violent action.





Sunday, May 2, 2021

US Concerns About Afghanistan's Future

(Written by, Abu Raja Haider)

The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Millie, had expressed concern three days ago that the withdrawal of foreign troops could lead to a resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan or the possible consequences of any kind in which Afghans These include the overthrow of the government, the civil war, the devastation of humanity and the restoration of al-Qaeda on this land. According to the US general, the best outcome of the withdrawal of coalition forces could be negotiations and an agreement between the Kabul government and the Taliban, but if al-Qaeda tries to increase its influence after the withdrawal of US troops, it will be monitored and pursued.

 

American circles also fear that if the Taliban took power in Afghanistan, the progress made in recent years in civil society and women's rights would be lost. In his April 14 announcement, President Biden said Washington would continue to support public projects, including Afghan security forces and women. In light of the situation, in his first address to the joint session of the Congress on Thursday, he made it clear that after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, we have to restore trust between Pakistan and Afghanistan. His thinking is positive in the sense that anti-peace forces have spared no effort to widen the gap between the two countries over the past 20 years, attacking Pakistani borders from Afghan soil on the one hand and Afghanistan on the other to create tension. Bombings and acts of terrorism, but Pakistan, realizing the facts, always kept the Afghan government informed of the common enemy.


It is a centuries-old fact that the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan have always stood together on the basis of common values ​​of religion, culture, and civilization, and have stood by each other in every joy and sorrow. After the establishment of Pakistan through its relations, trade, and free movement, a nominal border remained between the two countries. In the light of this situation, the United States openly acknowledges that the centuries-old ties between the people of the two countries cannot widen the gap, which makes it necessary for Pakistan to participate in the reconciliation process.


In his message on the occasion of the 29th anniversary of the overthrow of the Soviet government in Kabul by Mujahideen, President Ashraf Ghani said that lessons should be learned from the bitter experiences of the past in the peace process. According to him, the will of the people cannot be imposed through war and violence in Afghanistan. Now is the time for the Taliban to abandon the war and adopt a democratic approach to sharing power, but as the time draws near for the withdrawal of foreign troops, given the situation on the ground in Afghanistan, the international community has concerns about the future. There are also attempts to remove them.


Before leaving for Afghanistan, German Foreign Minister Heiko Moss visited Pakistan and had detailed discussions with Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's telephone conversation with Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa on Thursday is also a link in the same chain in which the two officials exchanged views on the situation after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Thought There is a need for all political groups in Afghanistan to understand the delicacy of the situation and resolve all issues in the best interest of the country and the nation through dialogue and understanding.



Must Read===> More Informative Articles,Blogs and Columns



Monday, March 29, 2021

The ITI Train Project, in the current global context

 ( Espacial Report )

In our country, in today's Pakistani territory, the British laid a railway line from Karachi to Ko Thadi in 1861 and started train service. In 1961, during the rule of President Ayub Khan, the centenary of railways was celebrated. At that time, Pakistan Western The Eastern and Eastern Railways were developing rapidly in the region and the plan to run an electric train from Lahore to Khanewal was nearing completion. The railway system in Pakistan was stable and standard. Until 1970, Pakistan Railways was for-profit and the largest government department, which began to decline in the 1970s and the railway department went into deficit instead of profit.

In 2011, when Pakistan Railways was one and a half centuries old, I wrote a book called "Rail of a Century" which was published in the same year. At that time, the railway department was almost 50% destroyed. Due to the depletion of oil in railway locomotives, trains often stood at stations for eight to ten hours.

Hundreds of kilometers of railway tracks were closed during this period and some are still closed but at the same time a train from Turkey and Iran from Islamabad to Istanbul under the 2009 plan ran in August 2010 and immediately Bangladesh and India He requested Pakistan to facilitate the transportation of goods through this railway line to Iran, Turkey, and later to Central Asia and Europe after expansion, but since then the governments coming up to 2018, No train has run since then, while many rail connectivity projects have been completed in various countries around the world, with China playing a key role.

In countries like Japan, the USA, Spain, France, and China, the speed limit of passenger trains has been increased to 450 km per hour. Our neighbor India has started train service up to thousands of feet in the foothills of the Himalayas, Occupied Kashmir and other areas, and in some parts of India, the speed of passenger trains has been increased to 250 mph, while India has railways in countries like Afghanistan and Iran. Started big track laying projects.

China has started railway service from Central Asia to Iran. India is trying to compete with China with the support of the United States, Britain and their allies, but our governments were under pressure from unknown Western countries. That we not only destroyed our entire railway system but also put the project on hold after the lone train run under the ECO Economic Cooperation Organization in 2009 and 2010.

While the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi established relations with Iran and paid an official visit to Iran in 2016 and during this visit a railway project agreement was signed between Iran Railways and IRCON Indian Railway Construction Limited. Iranian Sistan and Baluchistan near Gwadar. I am the Iranian port of Chabahar on the Makran coast near the Arabian Sea and the Strait of Hormuz on the Persian Gulf. Under this agreement, a railway track was to be laid from Chabahar to Zahedan, the provincial capital of Iranian Sistan and Baluchestan.

The project to lay 628 km of the railway line at a cost of 1. 1.6 billion was signed in 2016 and the agreement was set for completion on July 15, 2022. It should be noted that Zahedan is the second city of Iran after our last border town Taftan on the Pak-Iran border, after Taftan the Iranian territory begins and the first city is Mir Java which became Pakistan after the demarcation of the border in the sixties. Gave to Iran and in the British era when Rohri, Sibi, Quetta in Balochistan then from Quetta to Chaman on Afghan border, Sibi Harnai section, Bostan Tarub section laid railway lines, World War II started in 1914. As it was happening, the British started laying the Iranian railway line from Quetta keeping in view the strategic position of the area.

This railway line was laid 32 km west of Quetta from Spizand to Zahedan city of Iran in the west. At that time its length from Quetta to Zahedan was 700 km, now its length up to Taftan is a little more than 612 km. This railway line was named the War Line after World War I. Trains have been playing on this track since 1922. From the founding of Pakistan until 1985, the Zahedan railway station was staffed by Pakistan Railways, with a passenger train departing from Quetta on Saturdays and returning on Wednesdays, while goods trains ran almost daily. Now occasionally a train runs on this track. Here India had to lay the railway line from Chabahar to Zahedan.

District Chaghi is bounded on the west by Zahedan and on its northwest by the Iranian border with Afghanistan and from here the distance to Zaranj region of Afghanistan is 950 km while its total distance to Turkmenistan is 1827 km ie here the middle part from Afghanistan. Is followed by Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, while the sea distance from Chabahar to Dubai is 353 nautical miles and to Karachi, 456 nautical miles, and the distance between Chabahar and Mumbai is 845 nautical miles.

 The port of Gwadar in Pakistan is also important on the Makran coast and the Arabian Sea. The sea here is deeper than Chabahar, but the port of Chabahar on the Arabian Sea is deeper than Iran's old and busy port of Bandar Abbas. Now Iran's problem is that 90% of its population is in the western part and the eastern part of the country is less developed and less populated. Iran wants to change this imbalance in terms of population density. At present, 85% of Iran's trade is through the port of Bandar Abbas, then the port of Bandar Abbas is shallow and dense.

Ships weighing 250,000 tons cannot anchor here. Such ships either have to go to the United Arab Emirates or are anchored in deep seawater and taken to Bandar Abbas by ships weighing 100,000 tons. Iran wants to get rid of Chabahar from the need of the UAE and on the one hand, it wants access to Russia and Central Asia and on the other hand, it wants to reduce its population and especially the burden of Bandar Abbas by making Chabahar a free trade zone as compared to Gwadar. Iran is also naming it the Golden Gate, while India's plan was to reach Chabahar, the only Iranian port on the Arabian Sea, from the port of Mumbai, very close to Gwadar, to Afghanistan, and then to Central Asia. And this railway line will be further expanded later.

On the other hand, in February 2016, the train from China reached Tehran, the capital of Iran, after a distance of 10399 km and an altitude of thousands of feet, covering a distance of 10399 km to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The beginning

This is the ancient Silk Road. As far as the Indo-Iranian railway line was concerned, at the same time when Donald Trump was elected President of the United States, his policies against Iran became tougher, and President Trump signed the JCPOA Agreement. What Obama did with Iran, along with the veto powers of the European Union, Germany, and the Security Council was canceled, then the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi also started abstaining from Iran and did not start work on this project. Iran will not be able to take any action on this delay because Iran has weak diplomatic and economic relations in the world, but on July 15, 2020, the Iranian Minister of Transport and Urban Development Mohammad Islami canceled the project.

India is shocked by Iran's decision in terms of quartet strategy and its monopoly dream of reaching Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia has been shattered, which India is setting up here against China and Pakistan through the Chabahar project. Was Another reason for Iran withdrawing the Zahedan railway project from India to Chabahar is a 25-year agreement with China to invest 400 400 billion in Iran. In this context, the regular program of ITI train ie Istanbul, Tehran, Islamabad train has also started again from March 2021.

As far as Pakistan-Iran is concerned, the railway network in Iran was formed much later, especially after the revolution in 1979, while before the independence from Pakistani territory, from 1922, passenger trains and freight trains from Kota to Zahedan, Iran. Few people know that until the sixties, Iran was a poorer and more backward country than Pakistan.

 The RCD Regional Cooperation Development Cooperation Agreement between Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan was signed in July 1964. Since then, the Quetta-Taftan highway has been called the RCD Highway.

By 1979, major changes had taken place in the region. The monarchy ended in Iran. The military government came to power in Pakistan and the former Soviet Union deployed troops in Afghanistan. Thus, by 1985, the RCD had become a dysfunctional organization. In 1985, the RCD was renamed the ECO-Economic Co-operation Organization, which included Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey, as well as Afghanistan after 1990, when the former Soviet Union disintegrated. The newly independent Central Asian states of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan also joined. The total area of ​​these ten ECO countries is 7937197 square kilometers with a population of 520000000.

The annual GDP is 6. 6.3 trillion and the majority of the population in all ten countries is Muslim. These countries are rich in oil, gas, and other resources, and compared to the Middle East and Arab countries, there is democracy instead of monarchies and the literacy rate is higher and the religious, historical, cultural ties between the people of these countries are deep and old. Are

Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey are the countries that have important sea routes and ports that can facilitate trade with Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan by sea.

 Pakistan has given this facility to the neighboring country Afghanistan from the port of Karachi. Then as far as Arab-Ajam relations are concerned, the people of Central Asia including Afghanistan go to other Arab countries including Saudi Arabia and African countries from these three countries. While Turkey is a country located on both the continents of Asia and Europe, it will be easier to enter Europe by train from Istanbul to Tehran and Islamabad by land and by train, especially trade.

Similarly, Pakistan's position in the 'C-Pack' One Belt One The road project is at an intersection that is connected to the Pak-China border from Khanjarab to the railway track, Hawaiian, Dera Ismail Khan to Zhob, Boston, Quetta. ITI will be connected to the railway network from ITI ie Istanbul, Tehran, Turkey.

Unfortunately, our Bostan, Zhob narrow gauge railway track was closed in 1985. Then when Owais Ghani became the Governor of Balochistan, he informed the then President Pervez Musharraf about the plan to lay a broad gauge railway line here. At that time this 285 km track was costing Rs. 10 million per km according to PC One and this work could have been completed in just one year. There were people close to him who had a capital of more than Rs 2.85 billion and even if one of them was on a contract basis for eight to ten years, that is, on the basis of earning revenue for the trains running on this track up to this point. If we talked, it would become a track.

Now in March 2021, the ITI train started by the government with the cooperation of Turkey and Iran. The length of the Turkish railway line is 1990 km. The length of the track in Iran is 2600 km and the total length of the railway line in Pakistan is 1950 km. Is.

This railway line will enter Balochistan via Islamabad, Lahore, Rohri, Jacobabad. The railway track from Islamabad to Rohri can be said to be standard because this track has been tested on the basis of daily trains arriving and departing to Quetta. The railway line is very old. The whole area consists of rocky mountains and deserts. This railway line from Spiznand to Zahedan was laid by the British in 1914 and the train service from here started in 1922, ie almost one hundred years are being completed.

 At that time, the British were in danger of invading the Ottoman Caliphate and Germany from here in the First World War. The same was the case in the Second World War when the railway line was given full attention again. It should be noted that the British Had laid the railway line on the basis of a huge deficit in the whole of Balochistan and in severe weather conditions and as long as the British rule remained here but in the whole of Balochistan the railway was in constant deficit and its deficit to the railway companies operating in other parts of India. Was met by deducting a certain rate of profit. Now that is not the case and whether it is Bostan to Zhob section or Spizand to Taftan if the railway service is standard then these railway lines are profitable.

Pakistan is not paying attention to the railways at the moment, although at the moment the railways are booming all over the world again because in the next few years the use of fossil fuels will be abandoned all over the world. Motor vehicles are coming on the roads. They are battery powered and the battery is charged. For the past half-century, trains in the United States, Europe, Canada, Japan, and other developed countries have been running on electricity, and since these trains run on their own tracks.

Therefore, they receive uninterrupted power through the direct wire, which is much more powerful than electric-charged batteries, which is why trains in developed countries now reach speeds of up to 450 kilometers per hour, which is the air. Half the speed of the plane, then the journey of the train is safer than the road traffic, so now more attention is being paid to the railways in the world, which is now less cost-effective and faster.

If we look at the development of railways in the last twenty years, only our neighbors Iran, Afghanistan, India, China have built thousands of kilometers of new railway lines and laid them at such high and difficult places. The human intellect is stunned.

 Even today, coincidentally, the train from Turkey to Iran via Pakistan is as important today as it was during the Turkish Caliphate. In today's context, the importance of ITI train service is as important as in Russia, China, Central Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia is far more interconnected and more prosperous in terms of economic, industrial, and trade activities, then today most of these countries have their own railway system which can be extended to other countries. To be connected to the railway system.

Pakistan's railway lines are connected to India and Iran and in the future, there is a strong possibility that Pakistan railway lines will be connected to China and Afghanistan soon. As far as Istanbul, Tehran, Islamabad train service is concerned, it is basic. Is an eco-country project that will soon be joined by Central Asian countries, including Afghanistan, as well as the ITI project in the near future under China's One Built One Road, C-Pack project from China and Central. Under the Russian Commonwealth in Asia, Russia will also be connected to the world's longest railway line, while access from Turkey to Western Europe and from Russia to Eastern Europe will be possible under the railway network.

The United States is still the world's largest economy and defense, but China is now the world's second-largest economy, and according to some experts, if that continues, China will be the world's first economic power by 2025. Russia currently ranks second in defense and military, and China third.

103 years after World War I, 75 years after World War II and 22 years after the end of the Cold War in 1990, the alignment between the two groups in the countries of the world is largely complete. It was a critical crisis year in which there was talk of a third world war. It is almost certain that this war will not be fought on the borders but under proxy war in the future as well. That is, just as the Hijaz Railway was damaged during the First World War, so too will the ITI train project be damaged.




MUST READ:===>  Some painful questions

Friday, March 26, 2021

Afghanistan's future is once again.....?

 (Written by Abu Raja Haider)

With just a few weeks to go before the withdrawal of US troops under the Doha Accords, Afghanistan's future is still in jeopardy. However, other countries in the region, including the United States and Pakistan, are working to make the talks between the Afghan leadership and the Taliban a success. Talks were called for a peace deal that would end more than four decades of war in Afghanistan.

US Special Envoy Zalmai Khalilzad called for an all-party interim government At a conference in Turkey next month, the Afghan president will reject the proposal and propose a new presidential election. An Afghan government official said: "We are going to present a counter-proposal at the Istanbul meeting. If the Taliban agrees to a ceasefire, then the presidential election should be held as soon as possible.

The reaction of the United States, the Taliban, and other parties to this will be clear only when the proposal comes to light. The parties are ready for a mutually agreed solution That is why talks between the Afghan leadership in Doha and the Taliban, which took place in Doha under US pressure, are still stalled and violence in Afghanistan is escalating. He said it was difficult to meet the May 1 deadline for withdrawing US troops from Afghanistan. They want to leave Afghanistan in a safe and orderly manner. I do not intend to stay in Afghanistan for long. We will leave Afghanistan. The question is when we will leave. I do not see US troops in Afghanistan next year.

The Afghan president has not yet given any details about his proposal, but two government officials in Kabul have said that Ashraf Ghani will announce his election plan at an all-stakeholder conference in Turkey next month. A senior Afghan government official says early elections in Afghanistan are a fair plan for Afghanistan's future.

The position of the Taliban

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said the Taliban immediately rejected Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's proposal to hold elections later this year, saying such measures and elections had pushed Afghanistan to the brink of crisis in the past. Ashraf Ghani is now talking about a process that has always been full of scandals. Any decision on the future of the country must be coordinated through ongoing negotiations between the parties, we will never support it.

The complex history of Afghanistan's elections

Elections in Afghanistan have always been a difficult process. There are many obstacles in the way of elections. In a war-torn country, elections are another opportunity for fraud, low voter turnout, and insurgency.

Now the United States, Russia, and other stakeholders want an interim government to be formed in Afghanistan in one form or another. But incumbent President Ashraf Ghani insists that "leaders be chosen" only through the ballot box.

The Kabul government, meanwhile, wants to keep US forces in the country as long as possible, and its biggest argument or justification for this is that the country has been engulfed in renewed violence for the past few months. The Taliban, after gaining so much on the battlefield in Afghanistan, no longer expects to benefit from any of these strategies. Taliban deputy chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar told a conference in Moscow last week that "Afghans should be left to decide their own destiny." The parties must understand that if they do not reach a solution, the Afghan soil will once again be engulfed in a wave of violence and insecurity that will not end in the hands of either side. In short, in the current context, the future of Afghanistan seems to be in question once again.



Must Read: Afghanistan could be plunged into Cold War without a political solution


Thursday, March 25, 2021

Modi's letter, India-Pakistan relations improvement or time spending Tactics. ?

(Writing: Abu Raja Haider)

Since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent a letter to Pakistan on Pakistan Day, hopes have been expressed for good relations between the two countries again. It is not that there has been no desire for peace between the two countries in the past. Yes, the prime ministers of the two countries have made positive statements in the past, expressing hope for good relations. However, in the context of security issues, especially in the context of Indian-administered Kashmir, these statements were limited to rhetoric.

If we look at the mutual and unilateral goals of India and Pakistan, experts welcome the progress that has been made in recent times, but at the same time warn that these issues can be resolved in stages, not immediately.

On the occasion of Pakistan Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote in a message to Imran Khan that "India wants cordial relations with the people of Pakistan. Not only that, recently when Imran Khan had to cry, Modi sent him a message of recovery. Was sent Many other signs of change in the atmosphere have also been seen when the Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan and Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Bajwa made statements in recent days to improve relations with India.

An eight-member Pakistani delegation led by Pakistan's Indus Water Commissioner Syed Mehr Ali Shah is holding talks with its Indian counterparts in New Delhi for the annual Indus Water Treaty negotiations. The talks are taking place after two years. Last month, the directors of military operations of the two countries suddenly declared a ceasefire on the Line of Control and since then the ceasefire has been fully implemented. This sudden announcement of the ceasefire took everyone by surprise and echoed in many quarters that Indian and Pakistani officials were holding behind-the-scenes talks to normalize the situation.

It is also pertinent to mention here that the reason for the current relations and statements between India and Pakistan in diplomatic circles is being termed as 'track to diplomacy'. Following the agreement, some Indian and international newspapers published reports of possible secret talks between Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and his Pakistani counterpart Moeed Yousaf. Yousuf had denied the allegations in a tweet, saying the allegations were baseless. The name of former army chief General Jahangir Karamat also came up again and again, but Jahangir Karamat's Sources close to the matter expressed ignorance in this regard.

Rumors are also circulating in both the countries that the UAE, especially the royal family, is behind the improvement in Pakistan-India relations. In this regard, according to a recent report published by the international news agency Bloomberg, India and Pakistan have begun to follow a four-member "peace blueprint" drawn up by the UAE government for peace.

According to a Bloomberg report, the UAE's foreign minister has been a constant guide in the talks between the two countries, with no official statement yet on the veracity of the news. Has not been denied.

Rauf Hassan, Special Assistant to Prime Minister Imran Khan on Information and Broadcasting, said that Pakistan would always listen to the views of like-minded and close countries and would welcome countries that make suggestions on issues with India. Contrary to what the UAE or the United States have said, the important thing at the moment is that there are talks going on between the two countries. If we look at history, Pakistan has already seen the offer and help of other countries in a positive manner but India has always rejected the interference of any other country by saying that it is its bilateral issue with Pakistan.

Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir has also acknowledged that Saudi Arabia is trying to reduce tensions between India and Pakistan, as Saudi Arabia wants peace in the entire region.

 After the recent bitterness in the relations between the two countries, there are signs of some sudden positive changes in the atmosphere, two or three things can be done immediately. Send ambassadors back to both countries, simplify visa policy so that people on both sides can easily visit religious places, resume bilateral trade from the Wagah border.

Whenever there is a sudden announcement between India and Pakistan, we can assume that there is some back-channel diplomacy behind it. The United States is also interested in keeping India and Pakistan in touch.

At this stage, it will be difficult to have a big deal or a big agenda, but immediate progress is possible in matters like trade, people coming and going. But first and foremost, the end of human rights violations in India and Jammu and Kashmir. And progress is needed in resolving the Kashmir dispute.

The importance of Kashmir in India-Pakistan relations can be gauged from the fact that the two countries have so far fought two wars on this issue in 1948 and 1965, and since August 2019, Pakistan has held several international forums on the issue. But he has recorded his protest on the issue of changing the special status of Kashmir and has spoken to the heads of other countries. Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa has also recently said that the dream of peace in the subcontinent will remain unfulfilled until the Kashmir issue is resolved.

Pakistan knows that peace talks with India will not be complete without talks on Kashmir. Kashmir has never been removed from the table, so even now if progress is made in the talks, which ended completely after August 2019, it will start with relief in Kashmir, including lifting the ban on movement of people in Kashmir. This includes considering the history of giving Kashmir the right to self-determination, including the restoration of the Internet, and the gradual improvement of the environment.

India does not want a war in the region at the moment. The reason for the slight flexibility in India's attitude is the change in the regional situation and the criticism of India's actions in Kashmir. The third is to distance itself from other players in the region. do not have.

As far as the current situation in the region is concerned, it is very important for India at this time to be a part of the peace plan in Afghanistan and especially the US peace plan. Going back a little, Pakistan has repeatedly accused India of The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has lobbied for blacklisting Pakistan through various sessions to curb terrorist financing.

Pakistan's involvement in the Afghan peace process as a mediator and Biden's election to the US presidency has certainly been a significant opportunity for India to reflect on its position in the region. Biden's arrival means the next two to three years. Until then, the United States will continue to depend on Pakistan, and to acquire enmity in such a situation would be tantamount to isolating itself in the region and globally.

On the other hand, another issue is India's clash with China and China's proximity to Pakistan. India fears that after clashes between China and India in May 2020 and January 2021, and as a result of the growing proximity and unity between Pakistan and China, India will be stranded on the eastern and northern borders.

At the same time, the Modi government's internal problems, which include Code 19, the economy, and the struggles of farmers, are forcing India to take a U-turn. Pakistan's role in the Afghan peace process paves the way between East and West. Will remain as Pakistan is trying to look at its various options in the region as well as the country as a geopolitical economy by moving away from geographical strategy. In short, India is currently pursuing a policy of taking time to breathe and take stock of future matters.






Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Pakistan needs both China and the United States

(Written By Abu Raja Haider)

In recent times, relations between Pakistan and the United States have been based on US policy toward China and India, the Afghan war, and US concerns over international terrorism. Due to this, the relations between the two countries have not improved. The Biden administration has also given no indication of the future of the relationship.


Judging by the official statements and reports of think tanks, it is clear that Pakistan hopes for a relationship in which the United States maintains a balance between India and Pakistan and does not interfere in Pak-China relations. However, Pakistan's approach does not indicate what steps Pakistan will take to achieve these conflicting goals and bring about the desired change in US policy. All we are being told is that Pakistan is moving beyond global politics to global trade.


In fact, trade alone will not do anything, especially when Pakistan's status as an economic partner is clear. It is important to look at history here. The close relationship between Pakistan and the United States has historically been based on politics (from 1954 to 1965 and then from 1979 to 1990) or because of the threats to the United States and world peace (2001 to 2011). And this is where the relationship became logical.


The relationship between the two countries is still political, but it is now a source of controversy. But co-operation in areas such as Afghanistan's stability and counter-terrorism is still possible.


The United States believes that if the insurgency continues in Afghanistan, it will lead to the growth of terrorism. This terrorism will not only be a threat to the security of Afghanistan, but it will also fuel terrorism in Pakistan and thus destabilize a nuclear country. Is. On the other hand, India is also threatened by jihadists and this could have an impact on US policy towards China. These sectors are also the cause of conflict of opinion, policy, and interests between the two countries.


How the United States will address these issues will depend on US policies in China and Afghanistan, which are currently under review, but at the same time, the United States will see to it that Pakistan's policies are American. To what extent do they correspond to interests?


The United States does not want a new war in Afghanistan, nor does it want to end the February 2020 agreement altogether. The United States may have lost this war, but it still has the ability to save Afghanistan from instability. However, this work will definitely need the help of Pakistan. But at the moment there is no clear Pakistani policy towards Afghanistan.


There is a consistent lack of trust in US policies. Those who have doubts about the United States as an ally should also look at Pakistan's history.


In the past, the United States has helped Pakistan meet its economic and defense challenges. But things began to get complicated in the 1980s and after 9/11, and General Zia and General Musharraf found it difficult to obtain financial and political support from the United States. He preferred his own interests to Pakistan's interests in relations with the United States. Unfortunately, Pakistan has suffered more than its own misguided policies and measures.


Pakistan's policies will need the support of its own people before anyone else, and if Pakistan now wants to move from politics to trade, it will have to reach a conclusion on strategic and defense issues with the United States, otherwise, these issues will repeatedly fall into the path of economic partnership. Will continue to stand.


Pakistan also needs to strengthen its position as an economic partner and for that, Pakistan needs to strengthen its economy, as well as move beyond the security issues surrounding national goals, and adopt policies that Make the location really an asset.


Pakistan's importance as an economic partner will not be clear until Afghanistan is stabilized and Pakistan becomes a hub for pipelines and trade to Central Asia.


Pakistan should not try to change relations with the United States too much. The United States does not want to expand these ties. Pakistan should start with Afghanistan and counter-terrorism issues and try to build trust. He should then escalate the dialogue and co-operate on agreed issues and try to resolve differences. In the long run, the United States cannot leave Pakistan completely dependent on China, and this is where cooperation between the two is possible.


Pakistan should reconsider Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto's "two-way" ideology and abandon the idea that it will lose to China in establishing relations with the United States. Pakistan needs to make itself so strong that both the US and China need Pakistan. On the contrary, a weak Pakistan will need both the United States and China, but such a Pakistan can only have relations with one.





Friday, March 19, 2021

Afghanistan could be plunged into Cold War without political solution

 

According to the Associated Press, despite spending billions of dollars and nearly 20 years of military presence, the United States and NATO still see no solution for a sustainable and peaceful future for Afghanistan.

Default

According to a report in the Associated Press, the two powers have not been able to decide how to withdraw their troops from the war-torn country. The rapid withdrawal of US troops by the former US administration over the past few months has made it clear that the plight of Afghans are not going to be solved.

 "Violence has escalated and the culprits are all visible, whether they are Taliban, warlords, ISIS, or corrupt government officials," the AP wrote in its article. Newly elected US President Joe Biden is reviewing Trump's policy of withdrawing all US troops from Afghanistan by May 1 this year. 2,500 US and 10,000 NATO troops are still stationed in Afghanistan. Voices are being raised in Washington against an early withdrawal from Afghanistan.

 All the key players in Afghanistan are involved in the devastation of the war in one way or another.

Taliban

The Taliban control about half of the country. Despite peace talks, the Afghan Taliban and Afghan military operations continue. The Taliban has been blamed for recent killings of journalists and civil society leaders. He denies the allegations.

 There is also no evidence that they have severed ties with al-Qaeda, as agreed in the Taliban-US talks. According to a US intelligence report released in January, the Taliban still support al-Qaeda and the terrorist organization is growing stronger in the region.

Afghan warlord

Social workers worry that after the withdrawal of international troops, armed Afghan warlords will once again take the path of fighting. Between 1992 and 1996, warlords killed 50,000 people in battles against each other. The leaders also destroyed the capital, Kabul.

Afghan soldiers

Afghan forces also face strong criticism. According to a UN report, about a third of detainees in Afghan detention centers were tortured by Afghan soldiers. Financial corruption is also common in the Afghan forces and the Kabul government does not take any action against them.

ISIS and its allies

ISIL's regional ally targets Shia Muslims in the region in particular. The number and intensity of their attacks have increased. The group's activities call into question the security system in Afghanistan. Afghan forces appear to be failing to fight the group.

 Analysts agree that there does not seem to be an easy solution to the Afghan problem, whether foreign troops remain or leave the country. According to Afghan analyst Tariq Farhadi, "It should be clear to the United States and NATO that they do not want more war. They want a peaceful political solution in Afghanistan and the leaders who want to take the path of war are partners of the international community." Farhadi added that without a political solution, Afghanistan could be plunged into the Cold War.