(Writing: Abu Raja Haider)
Since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent a letter to Pakistan on Pakistan Day, hopes have been expressed for good relations between the two countries again. It is not that there has been no desire for peace between the two countries in the past. Yes, the prime ministers of the two countries have made positive statements in the past, expressing hope for good relations. However, in the context of security issues, especially in the context of Indian-administered Kashmir, these statements were limited to rhetoric.
If we look at the mutual and unilateral goals of India and Pakistan, experts welcome the progress that has been made in recent times, but at the same time warn that these issues can be resolved in stages, not immediately.
On the occasion of Pakistan Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote in a message to Imran Khan that "India wants cordial relations with the people of Pakistan. Not only that, recently when Imran Khan had to cry, Modi sent him a message of recovery. Was sent Many other signs of change in the atmosphere have also been seen when the Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan and Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Bajwa made statements in recent days to improve relations with India.
An eight-member Pakistani delegation led by Pakistan's Indus Water Commissioner Syed Mehr Ali Shah is holding talks with its Indian counterparts in New Delhi for the annual Indus Water Treaty negotiations. The talks are taking place after two years. Last month, the directors of military operations of the two countries suddenly declared a ceasefire on the Line of Control and since then the ceasefire has been fully implemented. This sudden announcement of the ceasefire took everyone by surprise and echoed in many quarters that Indian and Pakistani officials were holding behind-the-scenes talks to normalize the situation.
It is also pertinent to mention here that the reason for the current relations and statements between India and Pakistan in diplomatic circles is being termed as 'track to diplomacy'. Following the agreement, some Indian and international newspapers published reports of possible secret talks between Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and his Pakistani counterpart Moeed Yousaf. Yousuf had denied the allegations in a tweet, saying the allegations were baseless. The name of former army chief General Jahangir Karamat also came up again and again, but Jahangir Karamat's Sources close to the matter expressed ignorance in this regard.
Rumors are also circulating in both the countries that the UAE, especially the royal family, is behind the improvement in Pakistan-India relations. In this regard, according to a recent report published by the international news agency Bloomberg, India and Pakistan have begun to follow a four-member "peace blueprint" drawn up by the UAE government for peace.
According to a Bloomberg report, the UAE's foreign minister has been a constant guide in the talks between the two countries, with no official statement yet on the veracity of the news. Has not been denied.
Rauf Hassan, Special Assistant to Prime Minister Imran Khan on Information and Broadcasting, said that Pakistan would always listen to the views of like-minded and close countries and would welcome countries that make suggestions on issues with India. Contrary to what the UAE or the United States have said, the important thing at the moment is that there are talks going on between the two countries. If we look at history, Pakistan has already seen the offer and help of other countries in a positive manner but India has always rejected the interference of any other country by saying that it is its bilateral issue with Pakistan.
Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir has also acknowledged that Saudi Arabia is trying to reduce tensions between India and Pakistan, as Saudi Arabia wants peace in the entire region.
After the recent bitterness in the relations between the two countries, there are signs of some sudden positive changes in the atmosphere, two or three things can be done immediately. Send ambassadors back to both countries, simplify visa policy so that people on both sides can easily visit religious places, resume bilateral trade from the Wagah border.
Whenever there is a sudden announcement between India and Pakistan, we can assume that there is some back-channel diplomacy behind it. The United States is also interested in keeping India and Pakistan in touch.
At this stage, it will be difficult to have a big deal or a big agenda, but immediate progress is possible in matters like trade, people coming and going. But first and foremost, the end of human rights violations in India and Jammu and Kashmir. And progress is needed in resolving the Kashmir dispute.
The importance of Kashmir in India-Pakistan relations can be gauged from the fact that the two countries have so far fought two wars on this issue in 1948 and 1965, and since August 2019, Pakistan has held several international forums on the issue. But he has recorded his protest on the issue of changing the special status of Kashmir and has spoken to the heads of other countries. Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa has also recently said that the dream of peace in the subcontinent will remain unfulfilled until the Kashmir issue is resolved.
Pakistan knows that peace talks with India will not be complete without talks on Kashmir. Kashmir has never been removed from the table, so even now if progress is made in the talks, which ended completely after August 2019, it will start with relief in Kashmir, including lifting the ban on movement of people in Kashmir. This includes considering the history of giving Kashmir the right to self-determination, including the restoration of the Internet, and the gradual improvement of the environment.
India does not want a war in the region at the moment. The reason for the slight flexibility in India's attitude is the change in the regional situation and the criticism of India's actions in Kashmir. The third is to distance itself from other players in the region. do not have.
As far as the current situation in the region is concerned, it is very important for India at this time to be a part of the peace plan in Afghanistan and especially the US peace plan. Going back a little, Pakistan has repeatedly accused India of The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has lobbied for blacklisting Pakistan through various sessions to curb terrorist financing.
Pakistan's involvement in the Afghan peace process as a mediator and Biden's election to the US presidency has certainly been a significant opportunity for India to reflect on its position in the region. Biden's arrival means the next two to three years. Until then, the United States will continue to depend on Pakistan, and to acquire enmity in such a situation would be tantamount to isolating itself in the region and globally.
On the other hand, another issue is India's clash with China and China's proximity to Pakistan. India fears that after clashes between China and India in May 2020 and January 2021, and as a result of the growing proximity and unity between Pakistan and China, India will be stranded on the eastern and northern borders.
At the same time, the Modi government's internal problems, which include Code 19, the economy, and the struggles of farmers, are forcing India to take a U-turn. Pakistan's role in the Afghan peace process paves the way between East and West. Will remain as Pakistan is trying to look at its various options in the region as well as the country as a geopolitical economy by moving away from geographical strategy. In short, India is currently pursuing a policy of taking time to breathe and take stock of future matters.
